Dashboard
The site, in three numbers.
Updated when new evidence lands. Commentary updated weekly. The point is calibration over performance.
Honesty
Brier score
—
No predictions resolved yet
See all predictions →Cadence
Items this month
13
4 long · 6 micro · 3 predictions
See the dataset →Receipts pending
Open claims
3
3 claims · 10 sealed
See the receipts →Publishing cadence
Refreshed May 31, 2026 · monthly
What changed and why
Week of 2026-05-04
First full week with /receipts wired into a Brier card. Predictions sit at three pending — the calibration plot is empty by design until something resolves. The publishing cadence is light long-form, heavy micro: that ratio inverts in June when the AI-skill-drift series resolves and gets graded.
Numbers refresh on each request from the registry; commentary is written weekly. Last data refresh: May 31, 2026.